14省生猪存栏同比大降,山东最高跌16.7%!猪价要涨的节奏?
近期,20省纷纷公布了2024年一季度的降山节奏生猪存出栏情况。从出栏量来看,东最各有10省同比涨或跌。高跌存栏量方面,省生绝大部分省份较去年同期都有所减少,猪存猪价涨下降1-17%不等。栏同此外,能繁母猪存栏除广西同比增长1.6%,其余省份则下滑了4-11%不等。
可见,在猪价低迷时期,各省生猪出栏有所减少,存栏下降,去产能成效初显。本期《农财数读》带您详细了解各省一季度生猪生产的具体情况。
生猪出栏量:10省同比下降,湖南跌5.39%
从全国数据来看,2024年一季度,全国生猪出栏19455万头,同比下降2.2%。《农财智库》数据显示,目前已公布生猪出栏数据的20省中,出栏量排名前三的分别是河南、湖南和四川,分别为1852.32万头、1740万头、1578万头。
与此同时,出栏量超过1000万头的还有云南(1186.97万头)、湖北(1169.24万头)和山东(1142.3万头)。计算可知,这6省的出栏量约占全国总量的44.564%。此外,广东和广西的出栏量也逼近千万头,分别为980.79万头和975.14万头。
观察同比变化发现,10省增长1-20%之间,另有10省下降1-6%之间。其中,涨幅最大的是新疆,为19.3%;而跌幅最大的则是湖南,为5.39%。
生猪存栏量:14省同比下降,山东最高跌16.7%
生猪存栏量可以直观反映猪到底多了还是少了。国家统计局数据显示,2024年一季度末,全国生猪存栏40850万头,同比下降5.2%。根据19省公布的2024年一季度末生猪存栏数据(河南未公布),湖南最高,为3761.3万头。
另外,存栏量超2000万头的有云南、山东、广西和广东,分别为2950.45万头、2364.2万头、2226.58万头和2029.19万头。粗略计算,存栏量超千万头的10个省存栏量占全国总量的50.73%。
观察同比变化可以发现,广西、陕西、内蒙古、新疆和宁夏五省的生猪存栏有所增长,其余省份则出现不同程度的下滑。其中,降幅最大的是山东,为16.7%。可见,猪价低迷,各省的存栏量以降为主。这也侧面反映出,在深度亏损的行情面前,产能去化成为行业的主旋律。
能繁母猪存栏量:9省超100万头,浙江同比下降超10%
能繁母猪的增减,一定会反映生猪数量的增减。据统计,自2023年一季度起,能繁母猪存栏连续5个季度环比下降。截至2024年一季度末,全国能繁母猪存栏3992万头,同比下降7.3%。在此背景下,各省的能繁母猪存栏量也普遍出现下滑。
在已公布能繁母猪数量的13个省中,四川、湖南、云南、山东、广西5省的能繁母猪存栏量都已超过200万头。此外,广东、江西、安徽、江苏4省份的母猪数量也超过了100万头。这9省能繁母猪存栏量占全国总量的51.95%。
观察同比变化发现,除广西上涨1.6%外,其余省份能繁母猪数量均有所减少,增幅在1-15%之间。
综上可见,生猪存栏和出栏都以降为主,这也说明产能去化的效果有所凸显。换言之,猪可能真的有所减少了,这是否意味着后市猪价要迎来曙光了?让我们拭目以待。
【作者】曾慧玲
【来源】南方农村报 农财宝典 新牧网
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